Measuring changes in Plasmodium falciparum census population size in response to sequential malaria control interventions.

Abstract

Here, we introduce a new endpoint 'census population size' to evaluate the epidemiology and control of Plasmodium falciparum infections, where the parasite, rather than the infected human host, is the unit of measurement. To calculate census population size, we rely on a definition of parasite variation known as multiplicity of infection (MOIvar), based on the hyper-diversity of the var multigene family. We present a Bayesian approach to estimate MOIvar from sequencing and counting the number of unique DBLα tags (or DBLα types) of var genes, and derive from it census population size by summation of MOIvar in the human population. We track changes in this parasite population size and structur..